Nakuba amafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi abe namandla futhi alolonga inkathi yesimanje nawo abe nomthelela omkhulu enkingeni yesimo sezulu esikhona manje.Nokho, amandla azophinde abe yisici esibalulekile ekubhekaneni nemiphumela yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu: uguquko lwamandla ahlanzekile emhlabeni wonke omphumela wezomnotho walethela ithemba elisha ngekusasa lethu.
Izibaseli ezimbiwa phansi zenze isisekelo sohlelo lwamandla kagesi emhlabeni wonke, okuletha ukukhula komnotho okungakaze kubonwe ngaphambili kanye nokugqugquzela isimanjemanje.Ukusetshenziswa kwamandla omhlaba kukhuphuke ngokuphindwe kamashumi amahlanu emakhulwini amabili eminyaka adlule, okunikeza amandla izimboni zomphakathi wesintu, kodwa futhi kubangele ukulimala kwemvelo okungakaze kubonwe ngaphambili.CO2amazinga emkhathini wethu afinyelele emazingeni afanayo nalawo abhalisiwe eminyakeni eyizigidi ezingu-3-5 edlule, lapho izinga lokushisa elijwayelekile lalingu-2-3 ° C elifudumele futhi izinga lolwandle lalingamamitha angu-10-20 ukuphakama.Umphakathi wesayensi usufinyelele ukuvumelana mayelana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu nge-anthropogenic, njengoba i-IPCC ithi “ithonya lomuntu esimisweni sezulu lisobala, futhi ukukhishwa kwamuva kwamagesi abamba ukushisa kuphakeme kakhulu emlandweni.”
Ukuphendula inkinga yesimo sezulu, izivumelwano zomhlaba wonke zigxile ekwehliseni i-CO2ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni ukuze kunqandwe ukwanda kwezinga lokushisa futhi kunqandwe ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu se-anthropogenic.Insika eyinhloko yale mizamo izungeza ekuguquleni umkhakha wezamandla kanye nokuqhubekela phambili emnothweni wekhabhoni ephansi.Lokhu kuzodinga uguquko oluseduze olubheke kumandla avuselelekayo, njengoba umkhakha wezamandla uthatha izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zemikhiqizo ekhishwayo emhlabeni.Esikhathini esedlule, iphoyinti elikhulu elibambelele kulolu shintsho kube umnotho ngemuva kokusuka kumafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi: sizoyikhokhela kanjani le nguquko futhi sinxephezele ngenqwaba yemisebenzi elahlekile?Manje, isithombe siyashintsha.Kunobufakazi obandayo bokuthi izinombolo ezibangela uguquko lwamandla ahlanzekile zinengqondo.
Ukusabela ekukhuphukeni kwamazinga e-CO2
Ngokusho kweI-World Meteorological Organization(I-WMO) 2018 ucwaningo, amazinga egesi ebamba ukushisa emkhathini, okuyi-carbon dioxide (CO2), i-methane (CH4), ne-nitrous oxide (N2O), konke kufinyelele ukuphakama okusha ngo-2017.
Umkhakha wezamandla uzenzela yonke indawoAma-35% okukhishwa kwe-CO2.Lokhu kuhlanganisa ukushiswa kwamalahle, igesi yemvelo, kanye nowoyela kagesi nokushisa (25%), kanye nokunye ukukhishwa okungahlobene ngokuqondile nogesi noma ukukhiqizwa kokushisa, njengokukhipha uphethiloli, ukucwengwa, ukucutshungulwa, kanye nokuhamba (okunye okungu-10). %).
Umkhakha wamandla awugcini nje ngokuba nomthelela ekwakhiweni kwegesi ekhishwa ibhubesi, kuphinde kube nokukhula okuqhubekayo kwesidingo samandla.Ngokuqhutshwa umnotho oqinile womhlaba wonke, kanye nezidingo eziphakeme zokushisisa nokupholisa, ukusetshenziswa kukagesi emhlabeni wonke kukhuphuke ngo-2.3% ngowezi-2018, okucishe kwaphindeka kabili izinga lokukhula kwesilinganiso kusukela ngowezi-2010.
I-DE carbonization ilingana nokukhipha noma ukunciphisa i-carbon dioxide emithonjeni yamandla ngakho-ke kuqaliswa uguquko lwamandla ahlanzekile, ukuqhela kumafutha ezinsalela kanye nokwamukela amandla avuselelekayo.Isithako esibalulekile uma sizoqhathanisa imiphumela emibi kakhulu yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.
Hhayi “nje” ngokwenza into efanele
Izinzuzo zokuguquguquka kwamandla ahlanzekile azigcini nje “ekugwemeni” inkinga yesimo sezulu.“Kunezinye izinzuzo ezingadlulela ngale kokunciphisa ukufudumala komhlaba.Isibonelo, ukungcoliswa komoya okuncishisiwe kuzoba nomthelela omuhle empilweni yabantu” kuphawula u-Ramiro Parrado we-CMCC yokuhlaziya I-Economic Economic of Climate Impact and Policy Division ngesikhathi kuxoxwa naye kulesi sihloko.Phezu kwezinzuzo zezempilo, amazwe aphinde akhetha ukuthola amandla awo emithonjeni evuselelekayo ukuze anganciki ekuthengeni amandla kwamanye amazwe, ikakhulukazi amazwe angawukhiqizi uwoyela.Ngale ndlela, ukungezwani kwezwe kuyagwenywa njengoba amazwe enza awawo amandla.
Kodwa-ke, nakuba izinzuzo zoshintsho lwamandla empilweni engcono, ukuzinza kwe-geopolitical kanye nezinzuzo zemvelo akuzona izindaba;azikaze zanele ukuletha uguquko lwamandla ahlanzekile.Njengoba kuvame ukwenzeka, okwenza umhlaba ujikeleze imali… futhi manje imali isihamba ngendlela efanele.
Iqoqo elikhulayo lezincwadi likhomba ukuthi uguquko lwamandla ahlanzekile luzohambisana nokukhula kwe-GDP kanye nokwanda kwemisebenzi.AbanethonyaUmbiko we-IRENA ka-2019ibonisa ukuthi kuyo yonke i-USD 1 echithiwe ekushintsheni kwamandla kungase kube khona inzuzo engaba khona phakathi kwe-USD 3 kanye ne-USD 7, noma i-USD 65 trillion kanye ne-USD 160 trillion ngokwemigomo eqoqiwe phakathi nesikhathi esifika ku-2050. Kwanele ukuthola abadlali abakhulu nabenzi bezinqubomgomo. nesithakazelo sina.
Uma sekubhekwa njengokungathembeki futhi kubiza kakhulu, okuvuselelekayo kuba uphawu lwezinhlelo zokuqeda ikhabhoni.Isici esikhulu kube ukwehla kwezindleko, okushayela icala lebhizinisi lamandla avuselelekayo.Ubuchwepheshe obuvuselelekayo obufana ne-hydropower kanye ne-geothermal sebuneminyaka buncintisana futhi manje i-solar nomoyaukuthola umkhawulo wokuncintisana ngenxa yentuthuko yezobuchwepheshe kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okwandisiwe, ukuncintisana nobuchwepheshe obujwayelekile bokukhiqiza ngokwezindleko ezimakethe eziningi eziphezulu emhlabeni,nangaphandle kwemixhaso.
Esinye inkomba eqinile yezinzuzo zezezimali zoshintsho lwamandla ahlanzekile yisinqumo sabadlali abakhulu bezezimali sokucwila kumandla kaphethiloli wamandulo futhi batshale imali ezintweni ezivuselelekayo.Isikhwama somnotho saseNorwegian kanye ne-HSBC zisebenzisa izindlela zokuhlukana namalahle, kantiukutshala imali ezinkampanini zikawoyela eziyisishiyagalombili kanye nabakhiqizi bakawoyela abangaphezu kuka-150.Lapho ekhuluma ngesinyathelo sesikhwama saseNorway, uTom Sanzillo, umqondisi wezezimali we-Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, uthe: “Lezi izitatimende ezibaluleke kakhulu ezivela esikhwameni esikhulu.Bakwenza ngoba izitokwe zikaphethiloli wezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi azikhiqizi inani ebezinalo ngokomlando.Kuyisixwayiso ezinkampanini ezididiyelwe zikawoyela ukuthi abatshalizimali babheke kuzona ukuze baqhubekisele phambili umnotho kugesi ovuselelekayo.”
Amaqembu okutshala izimali, njengeI-DivestInvestfuthiI-CA100+, baphinde bafake ingcindezi kumabhizinisi ukuthi ehlise imilobo yawo ye-carbon.Ku-COP24 iyodwa, iqembu labatshalizimali abangama-415, elimele ngaphezu kwe-USD 32 trillion, lizwakalise ukuzibophezela kwalo esivumelwaneni saseParis: umnikelo obalulekile.Izicelo zokuthatha isinyathelo zihlanganisa ukufuna ukuthi ohulumeni babeke inani lekhabhoni, baqede uxhaso lukaphethiloli wezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi, futhi baqede amandla amalahle ashisayo.
Kodwa, kuthiwani ngayo yonke leyo misebenzi engalahleka uma sisuka embonini yamafutha ezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi?UParrado uyachaza: “Njengoba kuzo zonke izinguquko kuzoba nemikhakha ezothinteka futhi ukuqhela kumafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi kuzosho ukulahleka kwemisebenzi kulowo mkhakha.”Nokho, izibikezelo zibikezela ukuthi inani lemisebenzi emisha edaliwe empeleni lizokwedlula ukulahleka kwemisebenzi.Amathuba okuqashwa abalulekile ekuhleleleni ukukhula komnotho onekhabhoni ephansi futhi ohulumeni abaningi manje sebebeka eqhulwini ukuthuthukiswa kwamandla avuselelekayo, okokuqala ukunciphisa ukungcola kanye nokuhlangabezana nezinjongo zesimo sezulu samazwe ngamazwe, kodwa futhi nokuphishekela izinzuzo ezibanzi zenhlalo-mnotho ezifana nokwanda kwemisebenzi nokuphila kahle. .
Ikusasa lamandla ahlanzekile
I-paradigm yamanje yamandla isenza sihlobanise ukusetshenziswa kwamandla nokucekelwa phansi kweplanethi yethu.Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi sishise izibaseli ezimbiwa phansi ukuze sithole ukufinyelela ezinsizeni zamandla ezishibhile nezichichimayo.Kodwa-ke, uma sifuna ukubhekana nenkinga yesimo sezulu amandla azoqhubeka nokuba yingxenye ebalulekile ekusetshenzisweni kwamasu okuzivumelanisa nezimo kanye namasu okunciphisa adingekayo ukuze kubhekwane nenkinga yesimo sezulu kanye nokuchuma okuqhubekayo komphakathi wethu.Amandla ayisizathu sezinkinga zethu kanye nethuluzi lokuzixazulula.
Umnotho ohambisana noguquko ulungile futhi, kuhambisana namanye amandla aguquguqukayo oshintsho, kunethemba elisha ekusaseni lamandla ahlanzekile.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jun-03-2021