Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuNovemba 2021, amandla e-photovoltaic asanda kufakwa e-China ayengama-34.8GW, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngama-34.5%.Uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi cishe ingxenye yomthamo ofakiwe ngo-2020 uzokwenzeka ngoDisemba, izinga lokukhula kwawo wonke unyaka ka-2021 lizoba ngaphansi kakhulu kunalokho okulindelwe yimakethe.I-China Photovoltaic Industry Association yehlise isibikezelo sayo saminyaka yonke samandla okufakwayo ngo-10GW saya ku-45-55GW.
Ngemuva kokukhuphuka kwekhabhoni ngo-2030 kanye nomgomo wokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni ngo-2060, yonke imikhakha yempilo ngokuvamile ikholelwa ukuthi imboni ye-photovoltaic izoletha umjikelezo womlando wokuthuthukiswa kwegolide, kodwa ukukhuphuka kwentengo ngo-2021 kudale indawo yezimboni eyedlulele.
Ukusuka phezulu kuye phansi, uchungechunge lwemboni ye-photovoltaic luhlukaniswe lwaba izixhumanisi ezine zokukhiqiza: izinto ze-silicon, ama-silicon wafers, amaseli namamojula, kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwesiteshi samandla, ingqikithi yezixhumanisi ezinhlanu.
Ngemuva kokuqala kuka-2021, intengo yama-silicon wafers, i-cell conduction, ingilazi ebekwe phezulu, ifilimu ye-EVA, indiza yangemuva, uhlaka nezinye izinto ezisizayo izokhuphuka.Intengo yemojuli yahlehliselwa emuva ku-2 yuan/W eminyakeni emithathu edlule phakathi nonyaka, futhi izoba ngu-1.57 ngo-2020. Yuan/W.Kule minyaka eyishumi edlule noma ngaphezulu, izintengo zezingxenye ngokuyisisekelo zilandele umqondo ophansi wohlangothi olulodwa, futhi ukuguqulwa kwentengo ngo-2021 kunqande ukuzimisela kokufaka iziteshi zikagesi eziwela phansi.
Esikhathini esizayo, ukuthuthukiswa okungalingani kwezixhumanisi ezihlukahlukene kuchungechunge lwemboni ye-photovoltaic kuzoqhubeka.Ukuqinisekisa ukuvikeleka kwe-supply chain yinkinga ebalulekile kuzo zonke izinkampani.Ukushintshashintsha kwamanani kuzonciphisa kakhulu izinga lokuthobela imithetho futhi kulimaze isithunzi semboni.
Ngokusekelwe ekwehleni okulindelwe kwentengo yochungechunge lwezimboni kanye nezimali ezinkulu zephrojekthi yasekhaya, i-Photovoltaic Industry Association ibikezela ukuthi umthamo we-photovoltaic osanda kufakwa ngo-2022 kungenzeka udlule u-75GW.Phakathi kwazo, isimo sezulu se-photovoltaic esatshalaliswa kancane kancane siqala ukukhula, futhi imakethe iqala ukumila.
Ikhuthazwa yimigomo ye-dual-carbon, imali eyinhloko izama ukukhulisa ama-photovoltaics, umjikelezo omusha wokukhulisa umthamo usuqalile, ukweqisa kwesakhiwo nokungalingani kusekhona, futhi kungase kuqhubeke nakakhulu.Ngaphansi kwempi phakathi kwabadlali abasha nabadala, ukwakheka kwemboni akunakugwenywa.
1, Kusenonyaka omuhle wezinto ze-silicon
Ngaphansi kokukhuphuka kwentengo ngo-2021, izixhumanisi ezine ezinkulu zokwenziwa kwe-photovoltaic ngeke zilingane.
Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuSepthemba, amanani entengo yezinto ze-silicon, ama-wafers e-silicon, amaseli elanga, namamojula akhuphuke ngo-165%, 62.6%, 20%, no-10.8%, ngokulandelana.Ukwenyuka kwentengo kungenxa yokuhlinzekwa okuphezulu kwezinto ze-silicon kanye nokushoda kwamanani aphezulu.Izinkampani ezigxile kakhulu ze-silicon wafer nazo zithole izinzuzo engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka.Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, inzuzo yancipha ngenxa yokukhululwa kwamandla amasha okukhiqiza kanye nokukhathala kwempahla ebiza kancane;amandla okudlulisa izindleko ebhethrini nakwimojuli iphela Kancane kancane, futhi inzuzo yonakale kakhulu.
Ngokuvulwa komjikelezo omusha wokuncintisana kwamandla, ukusatshalaliswa kwenzuzo ngasohlangothini lokukhiqiza kuzoshintsha ngo-2022: Izinto ze-silicon ziyaqhubeka nokwenza inzuzo, ukuncintisana kwe-silicon wafer kushubile, futhi inzuzo yebhethri nemojula kulindeleke ukuthi ibuyiselwe.
Ngonyaka ozayo, ukunikezwa okuphelele kanye nesidingo sezinto ze-silicon kuzohlala kulinganisela ngokuqinile, futhi isikhungo samanani sizokwehla, kodwa lesi sixhumanisi sisazogcina inzuzo ephezulu.Ngo-2021, inani eliphelele lamathani angama-580,000 wezinto ze-silicon ngokuyisisekelo lifana nesidingo sokufakwa kwetheminali;kodwa, uma kuqhathaniswa nesiphetho se-silicon wafer esinamandla okukhiqiza angaphezu kuka-300 GW, siyashoda, okuholela esimeni sokujaha, ukuqoqwa, kanye nokwenyusa amanani emakethe.
Yize inzuzo ephezulu yezinto ze-silicon ngo-2021 iholele ekwandeni kokukhiqiza, ngenxa yezivimbio eziphezulu zokungena kanye nemijikelezo emide yokukhulisa ukukhiqiza, igebe kumthamo wokukhiqiza ngama-silicon wafers ngonyaka ozayo lisazobonakala.
Ekupheleni kuka-2022, umthamo wasekhaya we-polysilicon uzoba amathani angama-850,000 ngonyaka.Uma kubhekwa umthamo wokukhiqiza phesheya kwezilwandle, ingahlangabezana nesidingo esifakiwe sika-230GW.Ekupheleni kuka-2022, izinkampani ze-silicon wafer ze-Top5 kuphela ezizongeza cishe u-100GW womthamo omusha, futhi umthamo ophelele wama-silicon wafers uzosondela ku-500GW.
Uma kucatshangelwa izici ezingaqinisekile ezifana nejubane lokukhululwa kwamandla, izinkomba zokulawula ukusetshenziswa kwamandla okumbaxambili, kanye nokulungiswa kabusha, umthamo omusha wokukhiqiza i-silicon uzokhawulelwa engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2022, ubekwe ngaphezu kwesidingo esiqinile somfula, kanye nokunikezwa okulinganiselwe okuqinile kanye nesidingo.Ukungezwani kokuhlinzekwa kwempahla engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kuzodanjiswa ngempumelelo.
Ngokwezintengo zezinto ze-silicon, ingxenye yokuqala ka-2022 izokwehla kancane kancane, futhi ukwehla kungase kukhule engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka.Intengo yonyaka ingaba yi-150,000-200,000 yuan/ton.
Yize le ntengo yehlile kusukela ngo-2021, isephezulu ngokuphelele emlandweni, futhi izinga lokusebenzisa amandla kanye nenzuzo yabakhiqizi abaholayo kuzoqhubeka nokuhlala kuphezulu.
Ikhuthazwa amanani, cishe zonke izinto ezisetshenziswayo ze-silicon ezifuywayo sezivele zilahlile izinhlelo zokwandisa ukukhiqizwa kwazo.Ngokuvamile, umjikelezo wokukhiqiza wephrojekthi yezinto ze-silicon cishe izinyanga eziyi-18, izinga lokukhululwa kwamandla okukhiqiza lihamba kancane, ukuguquguquka kwamandla okukhiqiza nakho kuncane, futhi izindleko zokuqalisa nokuvala ziphezulu.Lapho i-terminal iqala ukulungisa, isixhumanisi se-silicon sizowela esimweni sokungenzi lutho.
Ukunikezwa kwesikhashana kwezinto ze-silicon kuyaqhubeka kuqinile, futhi amandla okukhiqiza azoqhubeka nokukhishwa eminyakeni engu-2-3 ezayo, futhi ukuhlinzekwa kungase kudlule isidingo esikhathini esiphakathi nesikhathi eside.
Njengamanje, umthamo wokukhiqiza ohleliwe omenyezelwe yizinkampani ze-silicon usudlule amathani ayizigidi ezi-3, ongahlangabezana nesidingo esifakiwe se-1,200GW.Uma kucatshangelwa umthamo omkhulu osakhiwayo, izinsuku ezinhle zezinkampani ze-silicon kungenzeka zibe ngu-2022 kuphela.
2, Isikhathi sama-silicon wafers anenzuzo ephezulu sesiphelile
Ngo-2022, ingxenye ye-silicon wafer izonambitha isithelo esibabayo somthamo wokukhiqiza okhulayo futhi ibe ingxenye encintisana kakhulu.Inzuzo kanye nokugxila kwezimboni kuzokwehla, futhi kuzovalelisa esikhathini seminyaka emihlanu yokwenza inzuzo ephezulu.
Ikhuthazwa yizinjongo zekhabhoni embaxambili, ingxenye ye-silicon wafer enenzuzo ephezulu, ene-low-threshold ithandwa kakhulu yimali.Inzuzo eyeqile iyanyamalala kancane kancane ngokwanda komthamo wokukhiqiza, futhi ukunyuka kwentengo yezinto ze-silicon kusheshisa ukuguguleka kwenzuzo ye-silicon wafer.Engxenyeni yesibili ka-2022, ngokukhululwa komthamo omusha wokukhiqiza we-silicon, impi yentengo kungenzeka yenzeke ekugcineni kwe-silicon wafer.Ngaleso sikhathi, inzuzo izobe isiminyanisiwe kakhulu, futhi amandla okukhiqiza omugqa wesibili nowesithathu angase ahoxe emakethe.
Ngokubuyela emuva kwezinto ezibonakalayo ze-silicon ezikhuphukayo nezintengo ze-wafer, kanye nokusekelwa kwesidingo esinamandla esiphansi somthamo ofakiwe, inzuzo yamaseli elanga nezingxenye ngo-2022 izolungiswa, futhi ngeke kube nesidingo sokuhlupheka ngenxa yokuqhekeka.
3, Ukwenziwa kwe-Photovoltaic kuzokwakha indawo entsha yokuncintisana
Ngokwalokhu okucatshangelwayo okungenhla, ingxenye ebuhlungu kakhulu yochungechunge lwemboni ye-photovoltaic ngo-2022 iyinsalela eqinile yama-wafers e-silicon, phakathi kwawo abakhiqizi abakhethekile be-silicon wafer baningi kakhulu;abajabule kakhulu kuseyizinkampani zezinto ezibonakalayo ze-silicon, futhi abaholi bazokwenza inzuzo enkulu.
Njengamanje, amandla okuxhasa ngezimali ezinkampani ze-photovoltaic athuthukiswe kakhulu, kodwa inqubekelaphambili yezobuchwepheshe esheshayo iholele ekwehleni kwempahla ngokushesha.Kulo mongo, ukuhlanganiswa okuqondile kuyinkemba esika nhlangothi zombili, ikakhulukazi ezixhumanisini ezimbili lapho amabhethri nezinto ze-silicon zitshalwe khona ngokweqile.Ukusebenzisana kuyindlela enhle.
Ngokuhlelwa kabusha kwenzuzo yemboni kanye nokungena kwabadlali abasha, indawo yokuncintisana yemboni ye-photovoltaic ngo-2022 izophinde ibe nokuguquguquka okukhulu.
Ekhuthazwa yimigomo ye-dual-carbon, abasanda kungena abasha batshala imali ekukhiqizeni i-photovoltaic, okuletha izinselele ezinkulu ezinkampanini zendabuko ze-photovoltaic futhi kungase kuholele ekushintsheni okuyisisekelo esakhiweni sezimboni.
Lesi yisikhathi sokuqala emlandweni ukuthi imali enqamula umngcele ingene ekukhiqizeni ama-photovoltaic ngezinga elikhulu kangaka.Abangenele abasha bahlale benenzuzo yabaqalayo sekwephuzile, futhi abadlali abadala abangenakho ukuncintisana okumqoka kungenzeka baqedwe kalula ngabasanda kungena abacebile abanothile.
4, Isiteshi sikagesi esisabalalisiwe asiseyona indima esekelayo
Isiteshi sikagesi siyisixhumanisi esingezansi somfula we-photovoltaics.Ngo-2022, ukwakheka kwesiteshi sikagesi okufakiwe kuzophinde kubonise izici ezintsha.
Izitshalo zamandla e-Photovoltaic zingahlukaniswa cishe zibe izinhlobo ezimbili: ezimaphakathi futhi zisakazwe.Lesi sakamuva sehlukaniswe izimboni kanye nezohwebo kanye nokusetshenziswa kwasendlini.Ukuhlomula ekugqugquzeleni kwenqubomgomo kanye nenqubomgomo yokuxhasa amasenti angu-3 nge-kilowatt-hora kagesi, umthamo ofakwe umsebenzisi unyukile;kuyilapho umthamo wokufakwa endaweni eyodwa unciphile ngenxa yokwenyuka kwamanani, amathuba omthamo ofakiwe osabalalisiwe ngo-2021 azofinyelela irekhodi eliphezulu, futhi ingxenye yawo wonke umthamo ofakiwe nawo uzokwengezwa.Ibekwe endaweni eyodwa okokuqala ngqa emlandweni.
Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Okthoba 2021, amandla afakiwe asabalele abe ngu-19GW, okulinganiselwa ku-65% yenani eliphelele elifakiwe ngesikhathi esifanayo, lapho ukusetshenziswa kwasekhaya kukhuphuke ngo-106% unyaka nonyaka kuya ku-13.6GW, okwakuwumthombo omkhulu we umthamo omusha ofakiwe.
Isikhathi eside, imakethe ye-photovoltaic esabalalisiwe iye yathuthukiswa ikakhulukazi ngamabhizinisi azimele ngenxa yokuhlukana kwayo nosayizi omncane.Amandla afakiwe angahle afakwe we-photovoltaic esabalalisiwe ezweni adlula i-500GW.Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yokungaqondi kahle kwezinqubomgomo kwabanye ohulumeni basekhaya namabhizinisi kanye nokuntuleka kokuhlela okuphelele, isiphithiphithi sivamise ukwenzeka emisebenzini yangempela.Ngokwezibalo ze-China Photovoltaic Industry Association, isilinganiso samaphrojekthi amakhulu esisekelo esiphelele esingaphezu kuka-60GW simenyezelwe eShayina, futhi inani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwezitshalo zamandla e-photovoltaic ezifundazweni ezingu-19 (izifunda namadolobha) cishe 89.28 GW.
Ngokusekelwe kulokhu, iphakamisa okulindelwe phansi kwentengo yochungechunge lwemboni, i-China Photovoltaic Industry Association ibikezela ukuthi umthamo we-photovoltaic osanda kufakwa ngo-2022 uzoba ngaphezu kuka-75GW.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-06-2022